Oarsman Outlook

Jan 24, 2022

Following a lackluster July-September quarter, financial markets sprang back to life in the year’s final three months. Large-company U.S. stocks leapt around 10%, on average, while their small-company counterparts did about half as well. Overseas equities were...

Oct 11, 2021

After a spectacular fifteen-month rally, financial-market returns for the third calendar quarter were decidedly lackluster. A September dip of 5% left large-company U.S. stocks roughly flat on the quarter; small-cap stocks fell 3% to 4%, while real-estate equities...

Jul 14, 2021

All major investment categories recorded solidly positive results during the second calendar quarter. Domestic equity benchmarks gained between 5% and 9%, with large-company stocks outperforming small-caps. Non-U.S. markets rose 4% to 6%, with developed markets...

Apr 14, 2021

As investors anticipated the strongest economy in a half-century, the January-March period saw a re-acceleration of the year-old financial-market rally. Domestic equity benchmarks jumped between 6% and 13%, with small-company stocks leading by a wide margin...

Jan 20, 2021

The final three months of 2020 capped a tumultuous year for global financial markets, as nearly all investment categories posted strong results for a third-straight quarter. In the U.S., large-company stocks advanced more than 10%, while small-caps surged to gains...

Oct 26, 2020

The July-September quarter saw continued strong results from nearly all categories of financial investments. Large-company U.S. stocks advanced between 7% and 9%; small-caps lagged with a gain of around 3%. Outside the U.S., developed-market returns averaged about...

Jul 14, 2020

The first half of 2020 will be remembered as one of the most remarkable investment periods in history. Following gut-wrenching plunges of 35% or more in a matter of weeks beginning in late February, nearly all asset categories staged equally astonishing recoveries...

Apr 21, 2020

Pandemic 2020: One Month In The COVID-19 pandemic, an archetypal “black swan” event, has upended the global economy and financial markets (not to mention our daily lives). As the implications of the crisis came into focus in late February, swaths of the financial...

Jan 10, 2020

The final three months of 2019 featured robust results from nearly all investment categories. The advance was paced by 8% to 10% gains by both large- and small-company U.S. stocks. Overseas, developed and frontier markets rose a bit less, though the emerging-market...

Oct 10, 2019

Summer saw modest advances by major investment categories, adding to already substantial year-to-date gains. Large-company U.S. stocks gained around 2%, though small-caps declined by a similar amount. Many overseas markets posted modestly positive results in local...

Jul 11, 2019

Nearly all financial investments provided solidly positive results during the April-June period, adding to a strong and broad-based early-year advance. Both large-company U.S. stocks and developed-market overseas equities advanced around 4% on the quarter;...

Apr 11, 2019

What a difference three months make! On the heels of last-year’s horrific final act, the opening quarter of 2019 featured heroic rebounds in the prices of nearly all investment categories. Major U.S. stock indices jumped 12% to 14%, with growth-oriented and...

Jan 15, 2019

Investors will not remember the final three months of 2018 fondly. In the worst quarterly performance since the Global Financial Crisis, most investment categories suffered substantial losses. Large-company U.S. stocks fell nearly 15%; small-company stocks plunged...